#PredictionMarkets

DefiLlama and Trueo integrate markets on protocol revenue and exploit outcomes. Supporters see a hedging tool; critics warn that someone who knows a vulnerability could bet before attacking.

DefiLlama examines trade counts, cash spent and price ranges separately for Kalshi single markets and combination contracts. Changes in spending per trade differ between the products, while low-price trades have become more common. Notional volume alone therefore does not describe traders' positions.

The dataset covers complete months from October 2025 through September 2026. Notional volume counts each contract at one dollar, whereas cash uses the price paid on the traded side. These measures are not interchangeable. Whether the platform increasingly favors extreme outcomes is the author's interpretation of the findings.

According to ABMedia’s summary of Robinhood’s third-quarter 2026 results, revenue rose 12% year over year to $1.42 billion, while crypto revenue fell 55% to $120 million and crypto notional trading volume declined 38%. Prediction-market revenue reached $173 million, more than six times the prior-year figure and above crypto revenue for the quarter. Options and equities also grew.

Crypto revenue remained below the prior-year level but recovered from $100 million in the second quarter. Net income fell 14% to $476 million, so record revenue did not mean record profit. An expanded Ripple partnership announced the same day included RLUSD launching on Robinhood Chain and Bitstamp, with institutional settlement and internal treasury uses also planned.